UPOS Radiation Belt

Satellites in space are instrumental in providing surveillance, communication, and navigation capability. Geomagnetic disturbances, which are related to enhancements of MeV electron intensity at geostationary orbit, can hamper these operations and can cause malfunction or failure of satellites and their onboard sensors. Accurate prediction of daily-averaged MeV electron intensity at geostationary orbit can be used to monitor the daily dosage of these MeV electrons for geostationary satellites. A recent significant advance in predicting the daily averaged intensity of energetic electrons at geostationary orbit was reported by Li et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1887-1890, 2001) based solely on real-time solar wind parameters and a simple radial diffusion model. This model gives predictions 1-2 days in advance. This project has extended the work of Li et al. by improving the diffusion coefficient used and by providing predictions 27 days in advance.

Near-real time ACE data including IMF, solar wind bulk speed and proton density.

Predictions of daily averages of MeV electron fluxes at geostationary orbit 27 days in advance