SAWS-ASPECS

The main objective of this activity is to advance the technology development of a Solar Particle Radiation Advanced Warning System (SAWS) which can collate and combine outputs from modules providing forecasts of solar phenomena, solar proton event occurrence and solar proton flux and duration characteristics which can be tailored to the needs of different spacecraft and launch operators.

As with precursor activities (e.g. FORSPEF), there shall be 3 core forecasting modules corresponding to:

1. Solar Flare (SF) forecasting
2. Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) onset forecasting
3. Solar Particle Event (SPE) characteristics forecasting

This activity shall improve on the precursor developments particularly in terms of the clarity of output forecasts for end users. Forecasts shall be made available through a web interface appropriate for end users and more detail for advanced space weather forecasters. User requirements shall include a derivation of energies and thresholds important for different users and warning levels with the system providing a clear traffic light system for quick look by operators. A thorough validation process shall provide results on the system's forecasting accuracy and shall be used to tailor the modules and the use of different data sources and algorithms for different forecast horizons and SEP energies.

Forecasting mode: Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/HMI observation.

Nowcasting mode: Flare module | Soft X-ray (SXR) peak flux and longitude CME module | CME speed and width Flare & CME module | all of the above

Forecasting mode: Probability of Solar Flares for a set of prediction windows ranging from 6h - 72 h, per identified active region (AR) Likelihood of CME (based on the Solar Flare Probability), per identified AR Maximum CME speed per identified AR

SEP time profile for the integral energies of interest E>10; E>30; E>100; and E>300 MeV for each prediction window

These SEP time profiles, incorporate the predicted probability of SEP occurrence based on the Probability of Solar Flares and the predicted peak flux at 50% and 90% CL.

Nowcasting mode: SEP time profiles for the integral energies of interest E>10; E>30; E>100; and E>300 MeV

These SEP time profiles, incorporate the predicted probability of SEP occurrence based on (a) solar flare, (b) CME and (c) solar flare & CME characteristics and the corresponding predicted peak flux at 50% and 90% CL for each of the three cases/inputs.

** The predictions of the SEP time profiles evolve wih time, as new data/info are received from the system.

Updated Peak Flux calculation module. Updated Validation Toolbox Updated Web-Interface