ESDF

Version: 1

Model produces probabilistic prediction of the intensity and duration of space weather events based on historical and real-time data from NOAA GOES > 2 MeV electron data. Our model produces alerts when electron flux crosses threshold corresponding to 1, 2, 4 and 6 events per year and notifies users when each threshold is crossed. Model uses Gaussian Process + Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler as well as ARMAX approaches to make predictions.

Inputs

Electron GOES >2 MeV flux, optionally solar wind parameters

Outputs

Event start, event duration, flux threshold crossed, probability of crossing next threshold

Model is time-dependent.

Domains

Magnetosphere / Global Magnetosphere
Magnetosphere / Inner Magnetosphere / RadiationBelt

Space Weather Impacts

Near-earth radiation and plasma environment (aerospace assets functionality)

Phenomena

Geomagnetic Storms

Code

Code Languages: Python

Contacts

Geoff Reeves, New Mexico Consortium (Model Contact)
Maria Voskresenskaya, New Mexico Consortium (Model Developer)
Gregory Cunningham, New Mexico Consortium (Model Developer)
Yihua Zheng, NASA GSFC CCMC (CCMC Model Host)

Publication Policy

In addition to any model-specific policy, please refer to the General Publication Policy.